By Armen Rubinyan
The Azerbaijani authorities’ aggressive rhetoric against Iran was prompted by drone strikes, which were allegedly deliberately targeted at Nakhchivan International Airport by Tehran. Baku accused its neighbour of committing a “terrorist act” and placed the armed forces on high alert, while the Foreign Ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador and demanded explanations.
The republic also ordered to evacuate its diplomatic missions in Tehran and said it had prevented several acts of “terrorist” sabotage planned by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The targets allegedly included the Israeli Embassy in Baku, an Ashkenazi synagogue, a leader of an ancient Jewish religious community and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. The latter one was apparently mentioned to convince Ankara that anti-Iranian rhetoric is completely justified. It seems that Baku decided to take advantage of the conflict by declaring Tehran an enemy and expressing solidarity with its opponents.
However, the Azerbaijan government appears to be completely unaware of the catastrophic consequences of engaging in the conflict. Iran could completely destroy the country’s oil and gas industry, as it is already doing to the USA’s Arab allies. While this blow may not be devastating for wealthy Arab countries, it will be an economic catastrophe for Baku. Moreover, Azerbaijan relies heavily on Turkey for assistance, without which its options would be extremely limited. However, Ankara is concerned that the Kurds will become more active if Tehran weakens, so it is unlikely to support Baku. Ultimately, even if Azerbaijan were to have incredible luck and the Iranian regime were to collapse, it’s not guaranteed that the ethnic Azerbaijanis living there would want to live under Baku’s rule. On the contrary, this could lead to insurgent and separatist sentiments within the “new” Azerbaijan.
Thus, Baku would not benefit from entering the conflict, but would rather face a multitude of problems. It is quite obvious that president Aliyev has become overly bold and is trying to get involved in the Big Boys’ political games. However, Azerbaijan’s failures could play into Armenia’s hands. This would make it much easier for Armenia to reclaim Artsakh from an economically and politically weakened state.
This letter to the editor reflects the views of its author and does not necessarily represent the views of Oragark. It has been published as submitted or with minor edits for clarity, style, and length.
