By William Paparian
Former Mayor of Pasadena
As Armenia celebrates another electoral victory for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his policy of rapid Western integration, a sobering reality confronts us: we are dismantling our traditional security relationship with Russia before any credible alternative has been established.
Russia’s recent warning — “Do not turn Armenia into another Ukraine” — was crude but contained an uncomfortable truth. The Azerbaijan-Turkey alliance, forged in blood and reinforced by the Shusha Declaration, now stands as one of the most formidable military partnerships in our region. With Turkish technology, Israeli weapons, and Azerbaijani oil wealth, this axis possesses both the capability and the coordination to pressure Armenia for years to come.
No one can deny Russia’s failures. Its betrayal during the 2020 and 2023 wars destroyed whatever trust remained. Yet abandoning Moscow’s residual deterrent — however imperfect — while Western security guarantees remain largely rhetorical creates a dangerous strategic vacuum. The West offers training missions, monitoring teams, and some advanced weapons. These are welcome, but they do not yet constitute a reliable shield against a determined Azerbaijan-Turkey bloc.
The risks are not theoretical. The persistent demand for the Zangezur Corridor, unresolved border disputes, and the overwhelming military imbalance leave Armenia exposed. Without a functioning balance of power, we risk being slowly coerced into concessions that could compromise our sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The Armenian Diaspora Must Play a Decisive Role
This is not a challenge the homeland can face alone. The global Armenian diaspora — particularly in the United States, France, and Russia — must move beyond emotional solidarity and charitable donations. We must become a serious strategic actor. Our communities possess significant political influence, economic resources, and professional expertise that should be mobilized to:
- Demand concrete security commitments from Western governments, not vague statements of support;
- Push for accelerated and unconditional military assistance from the United States, France, and India;
- Counter Turkish and Azerbaijani lobbying efforts in Washington, Brussels, and other capitals;
- Support targeted investments in Armenia’s defense industry and critical infrastructure.
The diaspora has both the right and the responsibility to insist on a foreign policy grounded in realism and national survival, not ideological experiments.
True strategic wisdom does not require choosing exclusively between Russia and the West. It demands a pragmatic, multi-vector foreign policy that puts Armenia’s survival first. This means pursuing genuine, honorable peace with Azerbaijan and eventual normalization with Turkey, while maintaining minimum functional relations with Russia to prevent economic collapse and total isolation.
The Armenian nation has survived far greater threats throughout our history. But survival has never come from wishful thinking or ideological experiments. In the end, no foreign power — whether in Moscow, Washington, or Brussels — will guard Armenian interests as fiercely as Armenians themselves.
The time for strategic clarity is now. Armenia cannot afford another miscalculation.
